NFL Week 4 picks odds best bets Chiefs Swiftly trounce Jets Seahawks defeat Giants
NFL Week 4 picks odds best bets Chiefs Swiftly trounce Jets Seahawks defeat Giants
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I had a Pete Weber "!" moment last week, as I went 5-0 against the spread on my top five bets. I had the covering the way-too-large number against the , the defeating for the 1,000th time and the having no problem with the .No time to bask in the glow of a good week. The overall record isn't close to good enough yet. Ready or not, here comes Week 4. This is what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.Top five picks ATS record: 8-5-2Overall ATS record: 23-23-2Straight up record: 26-222022 Overall ATS record: 135-129-82022 Straight up record: 177-92-3Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)The Jaguars have not been great this season and I'm glad I faded them last week, but a trip acro s the pond is potentially exactly what this team needs. Jacksonville is more familiar with London than anyone else, plus we get a revenge game! The former Falcon had more receptions (8), receiving yards (101) and touchdowns (1) in Week 1 than he has recorded in his last two games combined (5 receptions, 72 yards, 0 TDs), but I bet Doug Pederson will look to get him more involved this week. Atlanta put up just six points vs. the last week, and has been terrible on the road. He's 0-3 away from Atlanta in his young career, Jeremiah Attaochu Jersey and the Falcons have averaged just 11.0 points per game in those contests. The Falcons want to run the ball with and . Both are talented backs, but Jacksonville ranks No. 7 against the run this year. I think this could be a get-right spot for Jacksonville.The pick:Jaguars -3Projected score:Jaguars 24-20Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox,)I'm having a tough time figuring out the Commanders. I think has potential, but . He completed 19 of 29 pa ses for 170 yards and four interceptions in the 34-point lo s to the last week, and was sacked nine times for a lo s of 45 yards. Howell is being sacked at a near-historic rate, as the 19 the Commanders have allowed so far are tied for second-most through three games of a season since 1970.says Howell was pre sured on 27 of 39 dropbacks last Sunday, which was the second-highest pre sure rate recorded Jimmy Graham Jersey in a game in the Next Gen Stats era.I know the Commanders upset the Eagles in Philly in prime time last year, but that's when king was quarterbacking. The Eagles are without a doubt one of the best teams in the , and they have one of the best defensive fronts highlighted by rookie . This is a pretty big number, but I think the Eagles remember what happened last year when they were 8-0. Philly is 2-0-1 ATS this year while Washington is 1-2. The pick:Eagles -8Projected score:Eagles 31-20Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox,)I'm not saying the 49ers are on upset alert, but am I alone in thinking this line is too high? The Cardinals have led in every game they've played so far this year, and are 3-0 ATS. In fact, they are one of just five teams to hold halftime leads in all three games this season! is fourth in the in completion percentage (72%) and is one of just four starting quarterbacks who hasn't thrown an interception yet. (, and ).We all thought the Cardinals were going to be the worst team in the NFL, but they absolutely are not. They are gritty, and held the to just one touchdown in five red zone trips last week. The Cards were double-digit underdogs, yet came out and punched the Cowboys in the mouth. Give me that backdoor cover!The pick:Cardinals +14Projected score: 49ers 30-17Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC,)I gue s I'll bite. I know it was just the , but I think the Chiefs are back on track after a rough start to the season. As for the Jets ... convincing fans Zach Wilson is the best quarterback for this team has become a full-time job for head coach Robert Saleh. Wilson gets too much hate at this point and I think it's lame to pile on. But it's hard not to talk about him when we are trying to break down Jets games. In a Week 4 lookahead packet they sent me, CBS Sports Research called vs. Zach Wilson the "Mismatch of the century" (QB vs. QB, not team vs. team). Mahomes has 19 career halves with three pa sing touchdowns. Wilson has zero career games with three pa sing touchdowns. Wilson has the lowest pa ser rating in the NFL this season (57.0), and has already gone back to back in worst pa ser rating in 2021 and 2022. He also has a worse TD-INT ratio than JaMarcus Ru sell through 25 games.I will say that Wilson's offensive line has not been good at all, and is a reason the Jets statistically have the worst offense in the league in yards per game (225) and points per game (14). Taylor Swift sparked a blowout win for the Chiefs last week. Can she do it again?The pick:Chiefs -9.5Projected score:Chiefs 28-14Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, )The Seahawks opened up as underdogs and this line has already been bet down to a pick'em. Seattle is 2-1 ATS while New York is 0-3 ATS. The Giants are 1-13 in prime-time games since 2019. That's the worst prime-time record in the NFL in that span. Now, I don't want to ignore that the Seahawks are bottom five defensively in a ton of categories like points per game, yards per game, third-down conversion percentage and red zone percentage, but even if the Giants, who have the second-worst scoring offense in the league, enter into some kind of shootout, I believe Seattle would win that battle. I took the Seahawks to cover last week vs. the , and honestly did get a little nervous when took the field instead of . Thankfully, Seattle still delivered with a 10-point victory. is still dealing with his ankle injury, so we don't know his status right now. But the Seahawks have scored 37 points in back-to-back games. Can New York keep up?The pick:Seahawks PICKProjected score:Seahawks 27-20 (+1.5) 25-23 over LionsBuccaneers (+3) 21-20 over (+2.5) 26-23 over Bills (+3) 20- Kindle Vildor Jersey 17 over (-3.5) 28-16 over Bears (PICK) 23-20 over Texans (+3) 30-26 over (-2.5) 24-20 over 27-24 over Panthers (+4) (-5.5) 29-23 over Cowboys 24-21 over Patriots (+7)
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